October Fed decision

What exactly resolves?

Use the official FOMC decision and the exact target-range definition. A speech, an equity rally, or a headline about ‘rates’ does not establish the target change. Other tools may model a price move before the decision; that is not the decision itself.

The source rules name October 27–28, 2026. The decision and the contracts’ close times must be checked separately. Polymarket’s missing-statement fallback may extend beyond the displayed end date.

Are the two platforms asking the same question?

Polymarket uses the upper bound of the target range and has a no-statement fallback tied to the next scheduled meeting. Kalshi explicitly assigns a canceled scheduled meeting to the unchanged-rate bucket. These exceptions can produce different timing or payout behavior; do not certify a riskless cross-venue pair.

Is there room at the quoted price?

Depth below is measured from the captured book within 2¢ of each side’s best ask. The 100- and 1,000-share examples consume successive ask levels. These are snapshots of visible entry liquidity, not reservations, total market capacity, or exit guarantees. Kalshi asks are derived as 1 minus the opposing bid with its available quantity.

Reported 24h activity: Polymarket parent event 974,230 USD; selected contract 189,803 USD. Kalshi parent event 194,370 contracts; selected contract 75,814 contracts. These units are not interchangeable.

Both sides: upside is not the same as likelihood

One hypothetical share at each captured ask, before fees. The price is not a measured win probability. A winning share pays one unit; a losing share pays zero. Football ties and exceptional settlement can pay other amounts.

Return if win is conditional net gain ÷ entry cost. It is not expected return, annualized return, or a recommendation. Fees lower the gain and increase the amount at risk.

Evidence and forecasting thesis

No economic forecasting model has been backtested here. The midpoint benchmark plus sensitivity analysis makes the required probability hurdle explicit without converting market sentiment into a claimed fact.

• Official inflation and employment releases, revisions, and their relevance to the policy reaction function.
• Public policy communication versus the actual FOMC vote; neither an individual speech nor a stock move is a decision.
• Meeting cancellation or statement delay, which affects both timing and exceptional settlement.

What would invalidate the assessment: An unscheduled policy move, altered meeting schedule, or revised data can make the old benchmark obsolete. Re-read both contracts before carrying any comparison forward.

Risk profile: Discrete policy surprises, multiple mutually exclusive policy buckets, and costs that can consume a small price gap. ‘No change’ is not inherently a low-risk outcome.

Probability model and payoff sensitivity

The starting benchmark is the captured Polymarket bid–ask midpoint, 46.50%. No validated independent model justifies changing it. Lower and higher scenarios move this assumption by five percentage points; they are not confidence bounds or recommendations. Figures use 100 shares at the best ask plus an illustrative 1¢ per share total fee allowance. Larger entries require the depth simulation.

Formula: expected net = N × [p(win) + 0.5 × p(tie) − entry − fee]. The binary table assumes p(tie)=0. Break-even under that assumption is 48.00%. A better-looking result after increasing p proves only that the calculation responds to p.

Every tool’s contribution

Observed inputs, calculated outputs, actual provider responses, and tools that cannot support this study are identified separately. All sixteen learning tools are accounted for.

Actual provider outputs: inspect before trusting

Jev returned different for the rule comparison, with classification confidence 89.00% using jev-1.13.0. This is not the event’s probability. The request rubric and full distribution are in the evidence download.

Drift forecast window: 2026-09-21T23:42:18.204819Z to 2026-10-29T00:42:18.204819Z. Quality flag: low_data. Rejected for probability modeling. Near-zero variation in a projected band is not proof of low risk.

SPY.US price history and articles are broad market context, not the FOMC’s target-rate decision. Equity prices can move for unrelated earnings or geopolitical reasons.

EODHD returned 20 daily records for SPY.US. Latest record: 2026-09-21, close 773.5000 in quoted instrument units. Retrieval: 2026-09-21T22:42:01.126Z. Same-day values may not be final. No election, policy, or touch-threshold probability was derived from them.

• Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach Wants Out of the AI 'Epicenter': Inside His Zero-Exposure Portfolio

  2026-09-21T18:00:17.000Z · unrelated · classification confidence 88.00%

• Psoriatic Arthritis Market Landscape: 6 Key Late-Stage Drugs Set to Drive Future Growth | DelveInsight

  2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · unrelated · classification confidence 98.00%

• S&P 500 Will ‘Easily’ Top 8,000 Before Historic Crash, ‘Black Swan’ Fund Manager Says

  2026-09-21T16:54:14.000Z · unrelated · classification confidence 57.00%

• Corning Climbs 6% as AI Optical Interconnect Demo Highlights Its Fiber; Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics Rise 4%

  2026-09-21T16:46:52.000Z · unrelated · classification confidence 98.00%

• Stocks, Bonds Climb as Oil Falls on US-Iran Hopes

  2026-09-21T15:55:51.000Z · insufficient · classification confidence 23.00%

{
  "research": {
    "status": 200,
    "body": {
      "topic": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?",
      "keywords": [
        {
          "term": "Fed interest rates",
          "score": 95,
          "trend": "rising"
        },
        {
          "term": "FOMC meeting October 2026",
          "score": 88,
          "trend": "rising"
        },
        {
          "term": "Federal funds rate",
          "score": 80,
          "trend": "rising"
        },
        {
          "term": "Inflation",
          "score": 75,
          "trend": "rising"
        },
        {
          "term": "Rate hike probability",
          "score": 68,
          "trend": "rising"
        },
        {
          "term": "Economic projections",
          "score": 60,
          "trend": "stable"
        },
        {
          "term": "Goldman Sachs forecast",
          "score": 55,
          "trend": "rising"
        },
        {
          "term": "CME FedWatch Tool",
          "score": 50,
          "trend": "rising"
        }
      ],
      "coverageIndex": 90,
      "coverageTrend": "accelerating",
      "coverageChangePct": 45,
      "sentimentScore": -70,
      "sentimentTrend": "stable",
      "signalScore": 25,
      "signalDirection": "bearish",
      "interpretation": "Recent news overwhelmingly indicates a high probability of a Fed interest rate hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting. The September 2026 meeting saw a 25 basis point increase, and the majority of Fed officials' projections, along with analyst commentary, point towards at least one more hike this year due to persistent inflation and strong economic data. The market is pricing in a significant chance of a 25 basis point hike in October.",
      "leadingIndicators": [
        "CME FedWatch Tool probabilities for October 2026 meeting",
        "Upcoming inflation data releases (CPI, PCE)",
        "Statements and speeches from Federal Reserve officials"
      ],
      "watchNext": [
        "October 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting",
        "September CPI and PCE inflation reports",
        "Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's public appearances"
      ],
      "confidence": "High",
      "dataWindow": "7 days"
    }
  },
  "analyzer": {
    "status": 429,
    "body": {
      "error": "You've used your free AI analysis for today. Upgrade to Premium for unlimited access.",
      "usage": {
        "feature": "ai_analyzer",
        "used": 1,
        "limit": 1,
        "remaining": 0,
        "resetAt": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
        "isPremium": false,
        "enforced": true
      },
      "isPremium": false,
      "requestId": "874aed0f-db83-4b37-9ed5-ff55e71fa43f"
    }
  }
}

Costs, participation mechanics, and limits

• Entering: choosing a side, size, and price is different from receiving a fill. A limit can remain unfilled; crossing available quotes can consume multiple levels. These pages place no orders.
• Exiting: today’s entry depth says nothing certain about future bids. Early exit introduces a future-price assumption and may add fees. A marked gain is not a realized payout.
• Fees: all five captured Polymarket markets report fees enabled; the legacy fee endpoint returns base_fee 1000. This study does not interpret that as a flat 10% charge. Use the current market-specific schedule and rounding. Kalshi’s series fee type is quadratic_with_maker_fees; overrides and execution type can matter.
• Time and settlement: distinguish the event time, order close, resolution, dispute period, and withdrawal availability. Holding time and currency/funding costs are excluded from the scenario.
• Eligibility and access: platform and regional rules apply. Educational access to these pages does not establish eligibility to transact on either venue.
• Concentration: related topics may move together. The five studies are a learning set, not a diversified portfolio or an allocation proposal.

Polymarket fee documentation · Kalshi fee schedule