HOW TO · PAPER PRACTICE

How to use Triple Market View

Compare market prices with a forecasting community’s estimates without confusing the measures.

Before you start

This view includes Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus when matches are available. Metaculus forecasts are not executable exchange quotes.

Open Triple Market View

Step by step

  1. Choose a group of related questions in the triple view.
  2. Check each original question’s rules and the date of its estimate.
  3. Separate price-derived percentages from community forecasts in your notes.
  4. Compare only genuinely aligned questions and list possible explanations for disagreement.

Worked example

A community forecast of 60% beside a market price of 50 cents is a ten-point disagreement. It does not establish that a 60-cent sale is available elsewhere.

What the result means

Different incentives, aggregation methods, populations, and timing can produce different estimates. Missing sources and loose matches reduce what you can infer.

If something goes wrong

If one source is absent, use the available pair and mark the gap. Do not replace a missing forecast with zero.

Check your understanding

Explain one disagreement using a difference in question wording and another using a difference in update time.