HOW TO · PAPER PRACTICE

How to use Cross-Platform Comparison

Compare how different groups express uncertainty about similar events.

Before you start

A similar title is a starting point. Platforms may use different rules, dates, sources, and available prices.

Open Cross-Platform Comparison

Step by step

  1. Enter a topic in the search field, such as a named public event.
  2. Read the Polymarket and Kalshi listings side by side.
  3. Open each original question and compare its threshold, deadline, time zone, and resolution source.
  4. Record any difference before comparing the displayed percentages. Mark unmatched questions as not comparable.

Worked example

A 55% question about an announcement by Friday and a 62% question about implementation by month-end measure different things. The seven-point difference is not evidence that either is wrong.

What the result means

Even genuinely matching questions can differ because of stale quotes, spreads, participant mix, and liquidity. The comparison does not verify executable prices.

If something goes wrong

If one column is empty, try a broader search and check the source platform. Missing data is not a 0% estimate.

Check your understanding

Make a two-column rules checklist. Find one reason a pair should not be compared numerically.