HOW TO · PAPER PRACTICE

How to use Drift Radar

Explore a model’s forecast of contract-price movement, separate from the eventual event outcome.

Before you start

You need a supported Polymarket URL, slug, or condition ID and sufficient price history. Forecast availability depends on the inference service.

Open Drift Radar

Step by step

  1. Paste the identifier into the main input, or search for a market in the search area.
  2. Select Forecast → and wait for the loading status; the first request may take several minutes.
  3. Verify the returned question and inspect the historical series before the projected path.
  4. Record the forecast horizon and any uncertainty or service warning alongside the result.

Worked example

A projected move from 50 to 54 cents concerns a future contract price. It does not mean the event’s final YES probability is known to be 54%, nor that the move will occur.

What the result means

Price patterns can break after news or near resolution. Forecast bands are model outputs, not guaranteed bounds. A price forecast and an outcome forecast answer different questions.

If something goes wrong

If history is insufficient or the service fails, use another supported market or return later. Treat no forecast as unavailable, not neutral.

Check your understanding

Write a dated paper prediction of the next displayed price. Later compare it with the observed price at the same horizon, separately from the final outcome.