PolyMath Blog
Research guides, mathematical frameworks, and market analysis for prediction-market users.
38 articles
Polymarket Trading Strategy: Research Frameworks for 2026
Learn research frameworks prediction market analysts use in 2026: EV calculation, Kelly sizing, market selection, and calibration.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →How to Analyze Kalshi Markets: A Beginner's System
New to Kalshi? Learn a beginner research system for market selection, EV calculation, Kelly sizing, and fee-aware analysis.
April 12, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →Prediction Market Taxes: Complete Guide for US Traders (2026)
This complete guide covers US tax treatment for prediction-market activity, reporting requirements, and recordkeeping.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Polymarket Fees — Complete Cost Breakdown 2026
Exactly how much does Polymarket cost? Trading fees, withdrawal fees, gas costs, and spreads — all explained with real dollar examples. Plus tips to minimize fees and a Polymarket vs Kalshi fee comparison.
April 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Read article →Best Prediction Markets 2025: Complete Platform Comparison Guide
Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold Markets, and Metaculus compared side by side — fees, liquidity, market selection, and which platform is right for your trading style.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Polymarket Tutorial: How Prediction Markets Work
Complete beginner guide to Polymarket. Learn how prediction-market prices work, how to evaluate EV, size positions with Kelly Criterion, and avoid common mistakes.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market is Better in 2026?
The definitive comparison of the two biggest prediction market platforms — regulation, fees, liquidity, market selection, and which is right for different trader types.
April 12, 2026 · 14 min read
Read article →Kelly Criterion Betting: The Mathematical Formula for Optimal Bet Sizing
Learn how the Kelly Criterion formula works, how to apply it to Polymarket prediction markets, and why it's the gold standard for bankroll management.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Expected Value Calculator: Find +EV Bets on Polymarket
Expected value is a core concept in prediction-market analysis. Learn how to calculate EV and combine it with Kelly Criterion for disciplined sizing.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →Prediction Market Strategies: Advanced Guide for 2026
The five core strategies used by sharp Polymarket traders — EV hunting, arbitrage, sentiment fading, news trading, and market making. Includes bankroll management, calibration tracking, and a full PolyMath workflow.
April 14, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Prediction Market Arbitrage: Strategies, Tools & Real Examples
Learn how to find and exploit arbitrage opportunities in prediction markets. Covers cross-exchange arbitrage, correlated market hedging, and how to use the PolyMath Arbitrage Scanner.
April 12, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →Are Prediction Markets Accurate? A Deep Dive into Polymarket Calibration
We analyzed Polymarket's historical resolution data to answer the question every trader asks: do prediction markets actually get it right?
April 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Read article →Is Polymarket Legal in the US? — Complete 2025 Guide
Is Polymarket legal in the United States? We break down the CFTC settlement history, current geo-blocking, legal status, and the best regulated alternatives for US traders in 2025.
April 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Read article →Polymarket Withdrawal Guide: How to Cash Out Your Winnings
Step-by-step guide to withdrawing USDC from Polymarket and converting to fiat. Covers MetaMask, Coinbase, Kraken, gas fees, tax considerations, and common troubleshooting tips.
April 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Read article →Polymarket vs Manifold Markets — Full Comparison 2025
Polymarket uses real USDC, Manifold uses play money. Which prediction market platform is right for you? We compare liquidity, market selection, fees, UX, and who each platform serves best.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Metaculus vs Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
Compare the three biggest prediction markets — Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi — across accuracy, accessibility, payouts, and market selection. Find the best fit for your trading style.
April 12, 2026 · 13 min read
Read article →Kelly Criterion Calculator: The Math Behind Position Sizing for Prediction Markets
Learn how to use the Kelly Criterion to size your positions on Polymarket and Kalshi. Full worked examples, the quarter-Kelly strategy, and why this is the math serious traders use.
April 12, 2026 · 14 min read
Read article →Prediction Market Bankroll Management — The Complete Guide
Learn how to manage your prediction market bankroll like a professional. Covers Kelly Criterion sizing, variance control, stake limits, and why most traders blow up accounts by ignoring math.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Expected Value in Prediction Markets — How to Calculate Your Edge
Master expected value (EV) calculations for prediction markets. Learn to identify mispriced contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, calculate your edge in seconds, and only take trades with positive EV.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →Metaculus Guide: How to Use the Best Free Prediction Market Platform (2026)
A complete guide to Metaculus — how it works, how to make predictions, Brier scores explained, and how it compares to Polymarket and Kalshi. The best free platform for serious forecasters.
April 14, 2026 · 13 min read
Read article →Metaculus vs Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use?
A deep comparison of Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi: money-based vs play-money forecasting, accuracy, market selection, US legality, and fit by user type.
April 14, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →Kelly Criterion Position Sizing for Prediction Markets
How to use the Kelly Criterion formula for position sizing on Polymarket and Kalshi. Includes worked examples, fractional Kelly strategies, and common mistakes to avoid.
April 14, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Good Judgment Open: The Superforecaster Platform Explained
What is Good Judgment Open? Learn how the superforecasting platform works, how to build a forecasting track record, and how GJOpen predictions can give you an edge on Polymarket.
April 12, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Best Crypto Prediction Markets 2025 — Complete Roundup
A comprehensive review of the best crypto prediction markets in 2025. Compare Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, Augur, and PredictIt on liquidity, fees, UX, and market variety.
April 12, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →PredictIt vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Is Better in 2026?
Detailed comparison of PredictIt vs Polymarket — fees, markets, liquidity, legal status, and which platform is right for US political bettors. Includes fee impact calculators.
April 12, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →Top 10 Polymarket Markets to Watch in 2026
The 10 most important Polymarket prediction markets to watch in 2026 — US midterms, Fed decisions, AI milestones, crypto prices, and geopolitics. Expert analysis on odds, strategy, and where the edge is.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →How to Read Prediction Market Odds: Beginner's Guide (2026)
Learn how to read and interpret prediction market odds on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. Understand probabilities, implied odds, and how to find value — step by step for beginners.
April 12, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →How to Use the Kelly Criterion on Kalshi
A step-by-step guide to applying the Kelly Criterion on Kalshi — America's regulated prediction market. Learn how to size your positions correctly, avoid over-betting, and maximize long-run growth.
April 12, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Best Prediction Market Strategies for Beginners (2026 Guide)
New to Polymarket or Kalshi? Learn beginner prediction-market frameworks for reading odds, evaluating edge, managing risk, and tracking decisions.
April 12, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →World Cup 2026 Knockout Stage — Who's Mispriced in the Prediction Markets
The math changes in knockout rounds — binary Kelly now applies. Guide to World Cup 2026 Round of 16 mispricing patterns, bracket path correlation, and the 12-24h arbitrage window.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →Bitcoin Prediction Markets — How to Trade BTC on Polymarket
Analyze Bitcoin prediction markets using EV calculation and Kelly Criterion. Complete guide with sizing examples and market-gap analysis.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →F1 2026 Championship Prediction Markets — Mid-Season Kelly Strategy
How to trade F1 championship prediction markets mid-season using the Kelly Criterion. With $97M in Polymarket volume, F1 offers regular repricing opportunities after every Grand Prix.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →NBA Finals 2026 Prediction Markets — Kelly Criterion for Championship Trading
How to trade the 2026 NBA Championship market on Polymarket. Path-dependent Kelly sizing, conference finals mispricing, and how to find edge in a $252M market.
April 13, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →NBA Finals 2026 Prediction Market Strategy — Kelly Criterion for Playoff Betting
How to use the Kelly Criterion to size NBA Finals prediction market positions. Live Polymarket odds analysis, when to bet before vs. after games, and bankroll strategy for best-of-7 series.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Arsenal's EPL + UCL Double: Prediction Market Math for Correlated Positions
Arsenal lead both the EPL ($316M) and UCL ($235M) markets. Why you can't treat them as independent bets — and how to size correlated positions correctly with the Portfolio Tracker.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Eurovision 2026 Prediction Market Guide — Is Finland at 38% Right?
Finland is at 38% in the $82M Eurovision market. We break down the EV math, Kelly sizing for Finland vs. Australia vs. France, and why entertainment markets are consistently underexploited.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →Champions League Final 2026 — Trading the Biggest Single-Game Prediction Market in Europe
How to analyze UCL Final prediction-market prices. Arsenal at 26%, $234M in volume, and cross-platform pricing gaps in the European soccer calendar.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →The 2028 Presidential Election Megacluster — LeBron James, MrBeast, and Where the Real Edge Is
Polymarket has $1.034 billion in 2028 Democratic primary volume. Novelty candidates can distort prices around serious contenders. Here's the Kelly math and research frame.
April 13, 2026 · 12 min read
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