HOW TO · PAPER PRACTICE

How to use Market Browser

Learn to turn an interesting headline into a precisely defined forecasting question.

Before you start

Bring a topic you are curious about. Live listings depend on upstream data availability.

Open Market Browser

Step by step

  1. Browse the listings and choose one question. Record its title, displayed percentage, and the time you looked.
  2. Open the original market and read the full resolution rules. Copy the source, deadline, time zone, threshold, and exceptions into a notebook.
  3. Write the YES condition in your own words. Check whether several outcomes can happen together before comparing their percentages.
  4. Make a paper forecast before consulting other tools. Record one reason you might be wrong.

Worked example

For a fictional question about rain tomorrow, ‘rain’ might mean at least 1 mm at a named weather station before midnight. Rain elsewhere would not satisfy that rule.

What the result means

A displayed 60% is a price-based signal, not a verified 60% chance. Volume is past activity; it does not prove depth, accuracy, or an available execution price.

If something goes wrong

If listings fail or look stale, check the original source and timestamp. An empty result is not evidence that an event is impossible.

Check your understanding

Find two similar titles with different deadlines. Explain why they ask different questions.