PolyMath Blog
Research guides, mathematical frameworks, and market analysis for prediction-market users.
7 articles in Sports
World Cup 2026 Knockout Stage — Who's Mispriced in the Prediction Markets
The math changes in knockout rounds — binary Kelly now applies. Guide to World Cup 2026 Round of 16 mispricing patterns, bracket path correlation, and the 12-24h arbitrage window.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →F1 2026 Championship Prediction Markets — Mid-Season Kelly Strategy
How to trade F1 championship prediction markets mid-season using the Kelly Criterion. With $97M in Polymarket volume, F1 offers regular repricing opportunities after every Grand Prix.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →NBA Finals 2026 Prediction Markets — Kelly Criterion for Championship Trading
How to trade the 2026 NBA Championship market on Polymarket. Path-dependent Kelly sizing, conference finals mispricing, and how to find edge in a $252M market.
April 13, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →NBA Finals 2026 Prediction Market Strategy — Kelly Criterion for Playoff Betting
How to use the Kelly Criterion to size NBA Finals prediction market positions. Live Polymarket odds analysis, when to bet before vs. after games, and bankroll strategy for best-of-7 series.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Arsenal's EPL + UCL Double: Prediction Market Math for Correlated Positions
Arsenal lead both the EPL ($316M) and UCL ($235M) markets. Why you can't treat them as independent bets — and how to size correlated positions correctly with the Portfolio Tracker.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Eurovision 2026 Prediction Market Guide — Is Finland at 38% Right?
Finland is at 38% in the $82M Eurovision market. We break down the EV math, Kelly sizing for Finland vs. Australia vs. France, and why entertainment markets are consistently underexploited.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →Champions League Final 2026 — Trading the Biggest Single-Game Prediction Market in Europe
How to analyze UCL Final prediction-market prices. Arsenal at 26%, $234M in volume, and cross-platform pricing gaps in the European soccer calendar.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
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