PolyMath Blog
Research guides, mathematical frameworks, and market analysis for prediction-market users.
22 articles in Strategy
Polymarket Trading Strategy: Research Frameworks for 2026
Learn research frameworks prediction market analysts use in 2026: EV calculation, Kelly sizing, market selection, and calibration.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →How to Analyze Kalshi Markets: A Beginner's System
New to Kalshi? Learn a beginner research system for market selection, EV calculation, Kelly sizing, and fee-aware analysis.
April 12, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →Polymarket Fees — Complete Cost Breakdown 2026
Exactly how much does Polymarket cost? Trading fees, withdrawal fees, gas costs, and spreads — all explained with real dollar examples. Plus tips to minimize fees and a Polymarket vs Kalshi fee comparison.
April 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Read article →Best Prediction Markets 2025: Complete Platform Comparison Guide
Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold Markets, and Metaculus compared side by side — fees, liquidity, market selection, and which platform is right for your trading style.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Polymarket Tutorial: How Prediction Markets Work
Complete beginner guide to Polymarket. Learn how prediction-market prices work, how to evaluate EV, size positions with Kelly Criterion, and avoid common mistakes.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market is Better in 2026?
The definitive comparison of the two biggest prediction market platforms — regulation, fees, liquidity, market selection, and which is right for different trader types.
April 12, 2026 · 14 min read
Read article →Kelly Criterion Betting: The Mathematical Formula for Optimal Bet Sizing
Learn how the Kelly Criterion formula works, how to apply it to Polymarket prediction markets, and why it's the gold standard for bankroll management.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Prediction Market Strategies: Advanced Guide for 2026
The five core strategies used by sharp Polymarket traders — EV hunting, arbitrage, sentiment fading, news trading, and market making. Includes bankroll management, calibration tracking, and a full PolyMath workflow.
April 14, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →Are Prediction Markets Accurate? A Deep Dive into Polymarket Calibration
We analyzed Polymarket's historical resolution data to answer the question every trader asks: do prediction markets actually get it right?
April 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Read article →Polymarket vs Manifold Markets — Full Comparison 2025
Polymarket uses real USDC, Manifold uses play money. Which prediction market platform is right for you? We compare liquidity, market selection, fees, UX, and who each platform serves best.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Metaculus vs Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Is Right for You?
Compare the three biggest prediction markets — Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi — across accuracy, accessibility, payouts, and market selection. Find the best fit for your trading style.
April 12, 2026 · 13 min read
Read article →Kelly Criterion Calculator: The Math Behind Position Sizing for Prediction Markets
Learn how to use the Kelly Criterion to size your positions on Polymarket and Kalshi. Full worked examples, the quarter-Kelly strategy, and why this is the math serious traders use.
April 12, 2026 · 14 min read
Read article →Prediction Market Bankroll Management — The Complete Guide
Learn how to manage your prediction market bankroll like a professional. Covers Kelly Criterion sizing, variance control, stake limits, and why most traders blow up accounts by ignoring math.
April 13, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Expected Value in Prediction Markets — How to Calculate Your Edge
Master expected value (EV) calculations for prediction markets. Learn to identify mispriced contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, calculate your edge in seconds, and only take trades with positive EV.
April 13, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →Metaculus Guide: How to Use the Best Free Prediction Market Platform (2026)
A complete guide to Metaculus — how it works, how to make predictions, Brier scores explained, and how it compares to Polymarket and Kalshi. The best free platform for serious forecasters.
April 14, 2026 · 13 min read
Read article →Metaculus vs Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Should You Use?
A deep comparison of Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi: money-based vs play-money forecasting, accuracy, market selection, US legality, and fit by user type.
April 14, 2026 · 11 min read
Read article →Kelly Criterion Position Sizing for Prediction Markets
How to use the Kelly Criterion formula for position sizing on Polymarket and Kalshi. Includes worked examples, fractional Kelly strategies, and common mistakes to avoid.
April 14, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Good Judgment Open: The Superforecaster Platform Explained
What is Good Judgment Open? Learn how the superforecasting platform works, how to build a forecasting track record, and how GJOpen predictions can give you an edge on Polymarket.
April 12, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Top 10 Polymarket Markets to Watch in 2026
The 10 most important Polymarket prediction markets to watch in 2026 — US midterms, Fed decisions, AI milestones, crypto prices, and geopolitics. Expert analysis on odds, strategy, and where the edge is.
April 12, 2026 · 12 min read
Read article →How to Read Prediction Market Odds: Beginner's Guide (2026)
Learn how to read and interpret prediction market odds on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. Understand probabilities, implied odds, and how to find value — step by step for beginners.
April 12, 2026 · 9 min read
Read article →How to Use the Kelly Criterion on Kalshi
A step-by-step guide to applying the Kelly Criterion on Kalshi — America's regulated prediction market. Learn how to size your positions correctly, avoid over-betting, and maximize long-run growth.
April 12, 2026 · 10 min read
Read article →Best Prediction Market Strategies for Beginners (2026 Guide)
New to Polymarket or Kalshi? Learn beginner prediction-market frameworks for reading odds, evaluating edge, managing risk, and tracking decisions.
April 12, 2026 · 11 min read
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