Back to Learn

Explainer video studio

Short educational videos can turn PolyMath into a media property, not just a calculator site. The best format is explainer-first: graphics, source links, careful narration, and a calm research workflow.

Video series plan

What is a prediction market?

90 seconds

Hook: A market price can be more than a price. Sometimes it is a crowd's probability estimate.

  1. Open with a $1 YES contract splitting into $0 and $1 outcomes.
  2. Animate a 70 cent price becoming a 70% implied probability.
  3. Show news arriving, bids changing, and the probability updating.
  4. End on the difference between a forecast, a recommendation, and a guarantee.

The strange history of prediction markets

3 minutes

Hook: Prediction markets look new because the interfaces are new. The idea is much older.

  1. Timeline from informal election betting to Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988.
  2. Show university research, forecasting tournaments, Intrade, Augur, Kalshi, and Polymarket.
  3. Contrast academic, crypto, regulated, and community forecasting branches.
  4. End with the modern question: when is a market a forecast, a derivative, or a form of gaming?

Why 54 cents means 54 percent, but not certainty

2 minutes

Hook: A 54 cent market is not saying the event will happen. It is saying the market currently prices it at 54%.

  1. Use a simple coin-flip style example before moving to real event markets.
  2. Show spread, fees, liquidity, and resolution criteria as separate layers.
  3. Compare market-implied probability with a user's independent probability.
  4. End by opening the EV Calculator as a research aid.

Regulation and availability without the fog

3 minutes

Hook: The first question is not what should I forecast. It is whether you are allowed to participate at all.

  1. Split-screen: regulated U.S. event-contract exchange, crypto-native venue, points-based forecasting site.
  2. Show location, identity, market type, platform terms, and tax reporting as separate checks.
  3. Use a neutral map graphic with check-current-rules language instead of green/red certainty.
  4. End with the PolyMath disclaimer and source links.

How to read a market before using any tool

2 minutes

Hook: Most mistakes happen before the math starts, in the wording of the market itself.

  1. Zoom into a market title, description, source, deadline, and resolution rule.
  2. Highlight ambiguous words like announced, confirmed, wins, and before.
  3. Show how two similar markets can resolve differently.
  4. End with a checklist: wording, source, liquidity, fees, region, risk.

Voiceover structure

  1. Hook: one concrete curiosity or misconception.
  2. Definition: explain the idea in one sentence.
  3. Mechanic: show the moving parts with graphics.
  4. Caution: explain the main risk or limitation.
  5. Workflow: show where a PolyMath tool helps research the question.
  6. Close: cite sources and avoid telling the viewer what to do with money.

Avatar and AI production guidelines

Photorealistic model avatars can work, but only if they feel like a clear educational presenter and not a fake endorsement. Use a consistent fictional host, disclose synthetic generation, and avoid implying that any real expert, platform, or community is involved.

For brand trust, the best default is voiceover plus animated charts. Use avatars only for intros, transitions, and recap moments. The viewer should remember the explanation, not the production gimmick.

Production rules

  • Keep every video educational, not promotional.
  • Avoid high-pressure payout claims, urgent trading prompts, and similar language.
  • Use neutral graphics: timelines, maps, order books, probability bars, and workflow diagrams.
  • If synthetic avatars are used, disclose that the presenter is AI-generated.
  • Do not imitate a real person, influencer, platform founder, or existing community brand.
  • Keep affiliate links out of video descriptions until monetization policy review is stable.
  • End each video with sources and a reminder that platform availability changes.

Best first video

Start with "What is a prediction market?" It is the broadest search query, the cleanest educational topic, and the best doorway into the rest of the site. The second video should be the history timeline because it adds authority and gives the brand a more serious center of gravity.