Historical Calibration
How well do Polymarket prices predict actual outcomes? A perfectly calibrated market prices 70% probability events at 70¢ — and they win exactly 70% of the time. Explore the data below.
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Near-Perfect Calibration
Polymarket events priced at 70% resolve YES approximately 68–72% of the time — a calibration error of under 3 percentage points. This makes it one of the most accurate publicly available forecasting platforms, rivaling professional forecasters.
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